- Analysis and Commentary
Things on the clean cars front are moving quickly as the second Trump Administration takes the reins. Here’s TheGreenCarGuy’s first look at what Trump II is likely to mean for EVs and other alternative fuel vehicles.
In its previous iteration, the Trump Administration prioritized economic growth and deregulation, typically at the expense of environmental regulation. That approach hasn’t changed.
Early in his first week in office, Trump – who has repeatedly called climate change a hoax –began the process of canceling U.S. support of the Paris Agreement climate treaty, froze funding that had been allocated for installing EV chargers across the country and revoked an Environmental Protection Agency regulation that would have required carmakers to cut greenhouse gas emissions from new light- and medium-duty cars and truck by 50% starting with the 2027 mode year.
Foes of the emissions rule called it an “EV mandate” after the EPA estimated that, given the current state of emissions reduction technology for internal combustion engines, adherence would require EVs to account for between 30% and 56% of new light duty vehicles and 20% to 32% of new medium-duty vehicles by 2032.
During his previous term, Trump also rolled back federal tailpipe emissions standards, but they were later reinstated by the Biden Administration – only to be undone once again.
What to Look for Next
- A weakened EPA.
- Another challenge to California’s right to set tougher-than-federal emissions standards for passenger and commercial vehicles.
- A bid to repeal the $7,500 federal clean vehicles tax credit that was reestablished by Congress just two years ago with passage of the Inflation Reduction Act
- Lots of court battles to undo Trump Administration moves on the environmental and enegy fronts (among others)
- A slowdown in EV production and sales as automakers and consumers alike wait to see what it all means for them.
Not the End
Whatever does happen is not likely to bring an end to the electric vehicle.
Automakers have invested hundreds of billions of dollars in research and development and new vehicle and battery manufacturing plants and aren’t likely to throw it all away – especially as EVs are still in demand in China and some European countries.
It will take a while, though, for the turmoil accompanying the changeover from the Biden to Trump administration to settle down. And there will be al a lot of change and challenge coming on the EV front.
California’s Emissions Waiver
While Trump says he’s a champion of state’s rights, he’s not seen fit to let the state with the nation’s worst air quality decide for itself how to make things better.
Enshrined in the Clean Air Act passed by a Democratic-majority Congress in 1970 and signed into law by President Richard Nixon, a Republican, is California’s right, with a waiver from the EPA , to set tailpipe emissions rules that are tougher than federal standards.
That’s based on the finding that California has worse air quality than other states and needs the tougher rules to keep its residents breathing.
The rules also allow any state that wants to follow California’s emissions rules instead of the federal regulations to do so – and so far 16 other states have adopted all or part of California’s rules.
Not all have standards that can only be met by replacing some portion of internal combustion vehicles with EVs, but the dozen or so that do collectively represent more than a third of the nation’s new-car market. It is their collective demand for EVs that is driving the market.
Trump, however, has drawn a lot of financial support from the oil industry, which has a vested interest in keeping as many internal combustion vehicles as possible in the nation’s combined passenger and commercial fleets. Other conservatives simply don’t like the idea of government – state or federal – telling them what kinds of vehicles to buy and are relying on the new Trump Administration to do away with anything that looks like an EV requirement.
As part of an executive order that he signed his first day in office, Trump began the process of rescinding the program again.
The EPA waivers had been granted regularly for almost 50 years, but the EPA under Trump in 2019 revoked the state’s waiver. Lawsuits by the state and various environmental organizations held the revocation at bay until the Biden Administration took office in 2021 and renewed it. A federal court subsequently ruled that California did, indeed, have the right to go beyond federal emissions standards to protect its citizens.
Expect another court challenge this time around once the Trump EPA has its way, but don’t expect a new administration to come along and reinstate it before much harm is done – it will be at least four years until that can happen.
On a related note, the Supreme Court just last month declined to hear a petition by 17 Republican-led states challenging the constitutionality of giving California the power to supersede federal emissions rules. But the conservative-dominated high court also agreed to hear arguments from a group of oil companies claiming standing to sue to overturn the federal waiver.
EPA, Energy Department Face Changes
Trump already has said he will direct the EPA to be far less regulatory during his term in office and has nominated a former GOP congressman from New York, Lee Zeldin, to serve as EPA Administrator. In Congress, Zeldin was a consistent foe of environmental legislation and, during an unsuccessful 2022 run for governor of New York pledged to reverse that state’s ban on fracking.
Fracking is the practice of injecting a high-pressure fluid into oil wells to fracture shale and other porous rock formations underground, releasing oil and natural gas trapped inside. Because the chemicals used are toxic, fracking can contaminate underground water supplies and can trigger earth movement – earthquakes – as the underground rock formations are fractured.
During a confirmation hearing, Zeldin said he believes climate change is real, but also that the U.S. must balance environmental protection and economic concerns.
He said her supports an energy strategy that includes fossil fuels.
While the EPA is an independent agency, it works closely with the Department of Energy. Trump has nominated oil and gas industry executive Chris Wright, to head that department. Wright testified in a confirmation hearing that he believes climate change is “a real issue” and that the solution is “to evolve our energy system.” He said he supports “affordable, reliable” energy.
Wright is founder of Liberty Energy, a Colorado-based oilfield services firm that provides fracking at about 20% of the nation’s onshore oi wells.
Zeldin, if confirmed as EPA head, would run the agency that, by law, is charged with setting vehicle emissions standards that protect public health and welfare.
Because burning fossil fuels in internal combustion engines is so polluting, those standards have been increasingly stringent over the past several decades. A separate agency, the National Highway Traffic Safety Agency, translates the EPA standards into fuel economy standards.
The first Trump EPA argued that a unified national standard was necessary to eliminate separate state and federal regulations that complicated things for automakers.
In reality, though, car companies generally found that the solution was to make vehicles that adhered to California emissions standards, which automatically put them in compliance with the weaker federal rules.
It made new cars a bit more costly, but supporters argue that savings from better fuel economy offset higher purchase prices over a vehicle’s lifespan and that general savings from improved public health thanks to reduced vehicle emissions make higher car and truck prices worthwhile.
More to Come
Overall, it is likely that the current Trump Administration will continue to favor less stringent emissions regulations, arguing that such weakening or eliminating such measures will bolster the automotive industry’s growth and competitiveness.
It’s also likely, given his pre-election statements, that under the Trump Administration we’ll see rollbacks of scores of other environmental rules affecting water and air quality and governing oil and mineral extraction – more than 100 were rolled back in his first term – as part of a general weakening of federal regulation.
As a result – look for four years of court and political battles as public health and environmental groups do their best to stop the Trump Administration’s avowed intent to undo decades of work – by Democrat and Republican administrations alike – to make America a place where clean air and water are the norm in every community.